I feel like I said it 5, 10 or even 15 years ago : what can the snowmobile industry do to take up the challenges during the next years ?
There is less snow in some regions, the economy is uncertain, the prices of the vehicles keep rising, the fuel price is increasing, the younger generation is less interested in snowmobiling, etc…It is obvious that challenges grow bigger as time goes by. And we must not forget that the snowmobile industry still improves its advanced technology ! In all areas and periods of human life, tough situations brought remarkable innovations. It is in the human nature to surpass himself when coping with danger. Since many years, the future of the snowmobile industry has been uncertain; this shows how the survival instinct can make the difference. I strongly believe that this represents a great learning opportunity for the new engineers who work for the recreational vehicle manufacturers and they must constantly question themselves.
Just for fun, have you compared a 2004 snowmobile with a 2014 model of the same category ? Personally, I have one in my garage and even if it is well-maintained, still useful and appropriate for my usage, I must admit this : compared with its 2014 version, they are from different worlds at all levels ! It is so outstanding what the snowmobile industry achieved to improve the snowmobilers’ conditions. Regarding suspension and riding position, the true result for the pilot is a huge improvement of his comfort. We must notice the advanced technologies of the engine, durability, performance and fuel consumption ! Years ago, snowmobiles used more fuel but it was available at a much lower price. If I compare my 2004 liquid 600 with a recent 600, it is easy to see the enormous difference. I could keep going like this for a long time, but I know we all agree on this fact. So, what is the industry going to offer for the next years ? Can the 2014 lineup help us see what the manufacturers may have to present later ? It is hard to say. We can notice some hints but at the same time, manufacturers keep their secret. Just for fun, without any pretension as to know the future, here are some predictions for the next years.
First, whether we like it or not, there will be expansion of the utility, mountain, backcountry and crossovercategories. Easy to understand why : the sales of snowmobiles are increasing in the western part of the United States while they are decreasing in the eastern part. This is less obvious in Canada and Québec.
According to manufacturers’ statistics, sales of trail snowmobiles are continuously and clearly decreasing. Another important fact is that most of the new snowmobilers prefer off-road riding and use groomed trails only to reach their playground. So, it is not surprising that manufacturers increase their production of the most promising segments. Of course, it will be quite a challenge to establish where this type of snowmobiling will be practiced in the coming years.
What is going to happen with the issue started almost 10 years ago, between the 2-stroke and the 4-stroke engines ? The previous point may influence my following prediction. Yes, the 4-stroke engine is there to stay… But if you thought that the 2-stroke engine would disappear, you will have to reconsider it. As the 2-stroke engines become cleaner and more fuel-efficient than ever, the lightweight and power needed by off-trail machines will not be delivered by a 4-stroke engine in the short run… This is without even considering the production costs and impact on the retail price. Why do you think that Arctic Cat come back with a clean 600 ? It is a fact that a 2-stroke life is much shorter than a 4-stroke one, but what if reliability is there ? The 2-stroke motorization will remain much more suitable for snowmobiling reality, mostly off-trail.
I think that in a short while, the 121 in. track will disappear from the trail snowmobile segment. Just look at the performance and handling now delivered by the machines equipped with a 137 in. track; the reasons why a short track was prefered in the early days are much less obvious today. And we must add the advantages of a longer track to this consideration.
Those are global predictions about the trend of the market. Each manufacturer may go otherwise considering their own vision of the future. Now, let’s take time to read between the lines following our meeting with the manufacturers and add all this to our observations along with my own prediction.
Arctic Cat
Considering their limited resources and the announcement of the end of their partnership with Suzuki by 2015, we can expect that Arctic Cat will continue their partnership with Yamaha for the 4-stroke production. Developing engines remains very expensive for manufacturers, mostly 4-stroke engines. The performance, touring and maybe utility segments could well be equipped with Yamaha engines in the future. Also, it would not be surprising that other exchanges occur between Arctic Cat and Yamaha. It is easy to predict a new C-TEC2 800 engine; after 1 or 2 seasons on the 600 engine, it is really obvious. So, Arctic Cat will develop their own 2-stroke engines with advanced clean technology, more fuel-efficient and more reliable, as they say.
Once again, the main challenge for Arctic Cat will be to manage many important technology changes in the coming years : new 2-stroke engines and introduction of new 4-stroke engines in the ProCross chassis. This is part of the challenge of the snowmobile industry; they have to do it if they want to increase their shares of the market.
Polaris
Polaris should stick to their strategy that consists of getting closer to the Canada and Québec market. The Voyager lineup intruding the almost exclusive BRP Tundra market, shows again this strategy. Polaris’ engineers visited us many times and they probably will offer many nice surprises. The logical sequence would be to hit hard in the utility segment equipped with 20 in. tracks. Actually, BRP is on top of this segment that is getting more and more important in Canada and Europe as well. The introduction of a WideTrak issued from the front part of the Pro-R chassis, equipped with a robust liquid 600 Cleanfire engine and being lighter and easier to handle than the IQ WideTrak, should please the fans who miss the dominating WideTrak LX of the 90’s. However, it is still a mistery to know the Polaris positionning about the 2-stroke vs the 4-stroke. Despite its performance, the 750 Turbo is not interesting anymore and there is no real hint that Polaris wants to continue with the 4-stroke engine. It is quite different with the 2-stroke because the 600 and 800 Cleanfire are at the center of model development and are improved almost each year. The introduction of direct-injection technology on the 2-stroke in the coming years seems totally logical since this technology is already available in one of Polaris’ branch.
Ski-Doo
In Valcourt, the manufacturer keeps on confusing the issue when talking about trend. Despite some constants, Ski-Doo still surprised the industry since a few years. It is harder to tell the future about Ski-Doo because actually, this manufacturer is the one who offers the best products all over the different segments by their presence and innovation. However, BRP is absent from one category since a few years, a segment that is still popular, where BRP was very active once but, according to BRP, a segment today socially disputed : the high-performance snowmobiles.
Actually, the Arctic Cat 1100 Turbo is the only king of this category because there is no machine to compare it with. Many are still hoping for the return of the Mach Z. Everything is available : the XR chassis that provides an incredible handling to the 4-stroke, the 1200 cc engine that only asks to be improved. This said, BRP representatives will tell you that they do not want to run for the power game anymore… Well, they could change their mind. The other surprise could be in the utility-touring category. We know that BRP is number 1 in this market and that they offer the largest lineup with the Expedition and Skandic models. But they hold an ace up in their sleeve. The Lynx division of BRP present only in Europe, launched the Xtrim Commander 800R E-TEC which is, in fact, an «extreme» Expedition of 154 X 20 X 1,75 in. with a 800R E-TEC engine that develops more than 160 HP!!! Wow ! The snowmobile is actually available (visit www.brplynx.com ) but we will probably have to wait for the 600 WideTrak market to slow down before it is offered here. Or else, if competitors offer new products in this segment, it could influence BRP who will want to stay number 1. One thing is sure : an Expedition WideTrak 800R E-TEC would be a hit among off-trail fans in Québec and Canada.
Yamaha
The japanese manufacturer set the goal quite high last spring when they announced a 5-year planification marked by the introduction of a new model each year. The first step seems promising with the arrival of the Viper and the use of the Arctic Cat ProCross chassis. A remaining problem at Yamaha’s is that they are not quite active on growing markets such as the mountain and crossover categories. They have been stoburn and stayed only in the 4-stroke market in the recent years, which really did not help Yamaha. I think that to be number 1 again, Yamaha will offer a 2-stroke 800 cc engine. They do not need many 2-stroke engines… One is enough ! This will be the one that will bring Yamaha into the mountain and extreme machines, two developing segments that are very profitable. What do you think ? Can this well-known manufacturer produce a light, performing, clean, reliable and fuel-efficient 2-stroke engine ? You know the answer. I think it could happen soon and it should happen if Yamaha wants to stay in the snowmobile industry. Of course, new advanced chassis could also be expected in the next years.
Conclusion
You will understand that in this article, I just made predictions for fun, without any pretension and moreover, without any confirmed information from the manufacturers who stay silent. The idea was to juggle with what I can observe all while having the opportunity to be part of this fascinating world. This said, we can all be observers and everyone can try to predict where the industry will go in the next years. You are invited to send me your own predictions and observations; I will be pleased to discuss this matter with you.
